Flattening Yield Curve Startles Markets

  July 20, 2018

The rapid rise of short-term rates along with lingering long-term rates created unease with markets. A lack of rising long-term rates is indicative of weak long-term economic growth, where inflationary pressures may not be present or expanding.

The continued increase in the 2-year Treasury yield is drawing interest from short-term investors as the 2.52 % yield at the end of June was greater than the 1.84% yield on the S&P 500.

The difference in yield between the 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year Treasury bond narrowed to levels not seen since 2007. Also known as the spread, the difference between the 2-year note and 10-year bond is a barometer of economic sentiment. Should shorter term rates, such as the 2-year note, yield more than longer term rates such as the 10-year bond, then economic growth is expected to be lackluster. Some analysts view this narrow spread as a temporary event until economic growth accelerates driving longer term rates higher.

Sources: U.S. Treasury, S&P, Bloomberg

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